Morgan Stanley: Gold and Silver: When Will ETF Buying Return?
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Key Views
Morgan Stanley's US economists expect the Fed to hold rates steady this year with two cuts in 2026, as recent CPI data confirms disinflation is underway. Under this scenario, ETF inflows could resume, likely concentrated in Q4 2026. Silver has lagged gold, pressured by softening solar and jewelry demand; elevated prices and volatility are driving substitution and thrifting, also weakening silver's correlation with copper. Renewed Middle East tensions and resulting policy uncertainty pushed gold and silver down 2.5% and 6.6% last week, respectively, while platinum fell 2.3% and palladium 2.5%.
Outlook
Morgan Stanley projects gold at $4,450/oz and silver at $65.40/oz by Q4 2026, implying approximately 11% and 16% upside, respectively, with gains extending into 2027. Central bank demand stabilization should provide a floor for gold, while silver may additionally benefit from ETF reflows, higher price elasticity, and a restored copper correlation.
Recommended Securities
The report offers no specific company recommendations or individual stock ratings; its directional view favors gold and silver upside through H2 2026–2027. The core downside risk is a Fed rate hike.
Key exhibits
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