Goldman Sachs China Restaurants: Monthly Tracker: Jun Update: Weakness Continued with Weather Headwind; FMD Relatively Resilient Despite High Base
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Key Views
Fresh-made drinks (FMD) demonstrated resilience despite a high base. Guming and ChaPanda both improved to slight low-single-digit SSSG declines, aided by promo calendar shifts. Chayan Yuese saw SSSG and per-store GMV gains, with new products contributing ~15% of GMV. Promotional intensity rose month-on-month but remained rational. Haidilao net-closed one store in June; 1H26 net closures of eight fell short of Goldman's expected net 23 openings.
Outlook
Guming's 2026E SSSG may flatten, supported by coffee expansion. Chayan Yuese's improving trend could extend into 3Q on a low base. Taier's new 6.0 store model delivered 30%–40% higher first-week sales, potentially boosting efficiency.
Recommended Securities
- Yum China (YUMC): Buy (on CL), TP USD 58.00
- Guming (1364.HK): Buy (on CL), TP HKD 30.48
- Jiumaojiu (9922.HK): Buy, TP HKD 3.10
- Luckin Coffee (LKNCY): Buy, TP USD 48.00
- Haidilao (6862.HK): Neutral, TP HKD 14.30
- Chagee (CHA): Neutral, TP USD 13.60
- Gourmet Master (2723.TW): Neutral, TP TWD 77.00
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
Exhibit 3
Exhibit 4
Exhibit 5
Exhibit 6
Exhibit 7
Exhibit 8
