Goldman Sachs on Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150.KS): Eight Key Takeaways from the US NDR — Strong AI Tailwinds for MLCC and ABF; Buy
Summaries are public. PDF access requires an active membership; all members have the same access. Sign in
Goldman Sachs summarizes eight takeaways from US non-deal roadshow meetings with Samsung Electro-Mechanics (SEMCO) and reiterates Buy with a 12-month, SOTP-based target of W2,250,000 (driven by 2027E–28E EV/EBITDA), 60.7% above the September 11, 2026 close of W1,400,000. Despite ~13% QTD KRW appreciation against the dollar, the company maintained 3Q26 guidance—MLCC revenue up high-teens percent QoQ at ~20% operating margin; substrate revenue up 20% QoQ, also ~20% margin—implying genuine fundamental improvement. MLCC supply is tight: two distributor price hikes this year (distribution ≈10% of MLCC revenue), direct-customer repricing likely soon, and ~60% of next year's MLCC revenue covered by long-term agreements. AI is a structural tailwind: the AI datacenter MLCC market may grow 70–80% this year, SEMCO's AI MLCC revenue is compounding ~100% (accelerating in 2027), and AI's revenue share should approach 20% this year, exceed 30% next year and reach ~40% by 2028, at ~30% margins (nearly 40% for certain high-end parts). Silicon capacitors add a ~US$1bn single-customer contract. Goldman forecasts EPS of W19,924/W42,116/W70,172 for 12/26E/27E/28E, up from W9,347 in 12/25. ABF substrates are equally AI-levered—datacenters ≈60% of revenue heading toward 70%, 2030 capacity double 2025's and revenue over 3x 2026's—with LTAs stretching to 2032. Risks: faster industry MLCC supply growth; weak AI-server/auto/smartphone demand.