JPMorgan Global Commodities: Commodities Weekly Recap
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Key Points
- As of October 2, the value of open interest across global commodity markets fell 4% to $1.9 trillion.
- Energy markets saw roughly $35 billion of outflows; metals saw about $34 billion, pressured by weaker prices and contract expiries.
- Hormuz flows jumped from 7.5 mbd to 12 mbd, cutting tanker efficiency through longer routes and ship-to-ship transfers; with 766 of 923 VLCCs in use, global capacity is near saturation.
- High-cost Brazilian iron ore supply has exited the market.
Outlook
Central banks may continue gradual rate increases, and the IEA is expected to detail reserve-release plans on October 14-15. No current recommendations are listed; the note reviews prior research.