Goldman Sachs | Pork: 2Q26 Read-Through from SFD — Miss on Insufficient Fresh Pork Supply; FY26 Guidance Midpoint Cut 7% (Aug 12, 2026)
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Key Views
Management cut FY26 adjusted OP guidance midpoints by 7% overall — packaged meat -3%, fresh pork -9%, hog production -43% — to $1.225-1.375bn, implying 2H26 midpoint changes of -7%/+9%/+22%/-79% YoY. GS sees the results as a negative read-through for WH Group, whose US operations contributed 53% of FY25 profit and about 50% of fair value.
Outlook
GS expects 3Q26 earnings to weaken sequentially before a 4Q26 seasonal recovery led by packaged meat, with fresh pork rebounding. Hog production should post a 4Q26 loss, though smaller than the $20/head industry level implied by futures models.
Recommended Securities
- WH Group (0288.HK): 12-month target price HK$11.1/share (SOTP); stable dividend of HK$0.61/share implies a 7.5% yield.
- Smithfield Foods (SFD): latest target price $33.00 (March 24, 2026).
- Henan Shuanghui (Rmb24.89): 2H26 operating profit expected down 5% YoY.