JPMorgan: J&T Express 2Q26 Update: Macro volatility no barrier to scale, quality, and accelerating global growth
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JPMorgan maintains an Overweight rating on J&T Express (1519.HK) with a target price of HKD 13.00. The company's 2Q26 operational update highlights a decisive transition from capacity-building and losses toward scale, productivity, and capital returns.
Group parcel volume reached 9.18 billion in 2Q26, representing a 24.2% year-on-year increase, with daily volumes surpassing 100 million parcels for the first time. Parcels outside China accounted for 32.3% of the total, demonstrating the successful scaling of a diversified global platform. Southeast Asia remains the core growth engine, delivering 2.75 billion parcels at a robust 63.2% growth rate. Meanwhile, China continues to provide stability through network upgrades, and new markets—particularly Latin America—acted as a credible incremental engine, more than doubling volumes year-on-year for the fifth consecutive quarter of acceleration.
Operational efficiencies are translating into tangible cost reductions. In Indonesia, a new automation project reduced processing time by 40% and increased peak sorting efficiency by 150%. Capital expenditure discipline remains intact, with full-year guidance reaffirmed at USD 700-800 million. To bolster shareholder returns, management announced a HKD 2.0 billion share buyback program, equivalent to an approximate 2.4% repurchase yield.
Despite prevailing macroeconomic volatility, management reaffirmed their March guidance, reflecting high confidence in underlying volume and profitability trends. JPMorgan believes the next major catalyst will be the translation of these operational improvements into sustained earnings upgrades.
Key exhibits
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