Bernstein Global Hotels & Leisure: World Cup Boost Covers Softness Elsewhere
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Bernstein highlights that the 2026 World Cup will deliver a substantial, albeit temporary, boost to the global hospitality sector, effectively masking underlying demand softness in various non-host regions. The tournament is projected to drive an impressive 15 to 20 percentage point increase in occupancy rates for host cities, alongside a 30% to 50% surge in average daily room rates. However, this localized strength obscures broader industry challenges.
Outside of host markets, demand trajectories are distinctly weaker. European business travel recovery remains sluggish, while Asia-Pacific leisure demand growth has decelerated significantly. Consequently, global hotel Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) growth is expected to decelerate from 4.5% in 2025 to 3.2% in 2026. The World Cup is estimated to contribute approximately 1.5 percentage points to this aggregate figure.
The report underscores a widening performance divergence across market segments. Select-service hotels are outperforming due to compelling value propositions, with projected RevPAR growth of 4.0%. Conversely, luxury hotels face demand diversion, resulting in a lower 2.0% RevPAR growth. Rising labor expenses continue to compress operating margins, projected to decline by 0.3 percentage points. Web traffic data suggests Airbnb is positioned to lead room-night growth, outpacing broader industry consensus expectations.
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