Goldman Sachs Renewables Barometer: US Orders and Offshore Wind Recovery Evident at Vestas
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Goldman Sachs' global renewable energy barometer highlights a significant recovery in US orders and offshore wind activity, particularly benefiting Vestas, an industry leader. The analysis indicates that US renewable energy orders have rebounded sharply, increasing approximately 20% month-over-month. This surge is complemented by accelerated offshore wind project approvals, with installed capacity expected to grow 30% year-over-year in 2026.
Vestas is capturing a substantial share of this market expansion. The company has increased its US market share to 25% and achieved a record-high order backlog. Supply chain bottlenecks have materially eased, reducing turbine delivery lead times down to six months. Financially, Vestas is projected to see its 2026 EBIT margin recover to 8%, marking a definitive profitability inflection point.
Supportive policy frameworks, including the Inflation Reduction Act, continue to drive long-term demand, with 2030 installation targets revised upward to 50 gigawatts. In Europe, offshore wind tender volumes have doubled, with Vestas securing a 40% win rate. While Asia-Pacific orders are growing at a slower pace, the Indian market remains a bright spot. Acknowledging these tailwinds, Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on Vestas (VWS.CO) with a target price of 300 Danish kroner. Key downside risks include potential raw material price volatility and delays in policy execution.
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