Nomura Asia Chart Alert: Leading Index of Asian Exports
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Nomura's leading index of Asian exports (NELI) rose sharply to 113.7 in May 2026, marking its third consecutive monthly increase and reaching its highest level since August 2021. Despite ongoing global energy shocks, the index signals that Asian export growth remains on a robust upward trajectory. The NELI, which comprises nine components with a roughly three-month lead time, has accurately predicted major historical turning points. Its current ascent is driven by broad-based improvements across tech-related indicators, Chinese import growth, emerging market manufacturing PMIs, and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index.
Although the freight index is somewhat inflated by surging shipping costs caused by Middle East conflicts, the underlying signal remains strong. Even when adjusting for the freight rate spike, the NELI still points to Asian export growth exceeding 30% year-over-year in the second quarter. This momentum is corroborated by South Korea's early trade data, which shows exports surging 49.4% year-over-year in the first 20 days of April. However, Nomura cautions that if the Middle East conflict persists, subsequent supply chain disruptions and weakening external demand could constrain further export expansion. No specific investment recommendations were issued.