Goldman Sachs China Restaurants: Monthly Tracker – July Update: Demand Weakness Persists; Freshly Made Drinks Face Tough Comps, but Some Players Remain Resilient
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Key Views
- Same-store sales: Haidilao's same-store sales growth was stable year-on-year, with its implied recovery level steady month-on-month, while FMD brands' same-store sales growth broadly declined sequentially on high bases.
- Store openings: Monthly store openings are tracked across covered chains.
- Weather: July conditions were divergent; South China ran cooler than usual amid heavy rain, measured via weekly average temperatures versus 10-year historical averages (°C).
- Travel: The latest domestic flight capacity exceeded FY2019 levels by 3%, but declined month-on-month.
- Promotions and products: FMD and quick-service restaurant (QSR) promotion activity and new product launches are monitored.
- Valuation: Food services' forward 12-month EV/EBITDA is charted, alongside a China restaurants comparable company table.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
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Exhibit 8
