Goldman Sachs China Economic Activity and Policy Tracker: September 4
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Abstract
Goldman Sachs' China team moved this high-frequency tracker to a weekly schedule to monitor the energy-price supply shock, covering consumption and travel, production and investment, other macro activity, and markets and policy. Daily new-home sales in 30 cities rose above year-ago levels, while 16-city existing-home sales dipped modestly but stayed higher year-on-year; domestic passenger flights declined. Gasoline and diesel prices were raised by RMB375 and RMB360 per ton on August 29, and Morning Consult consumer confidence and the August weighted PMI employment sub-index softened. Steel demand and output were flat, and coastal coal burn slipped below year-ago levels. Year-to-date local government special bond issuance reached RMB2.94 trillion and government bond quota usage RMB7.56 trillion, both below last year, while August policy bank support weakened versus July. Official port container throughput declined, though outbound cargo from 20 major ports rebounded. Repo rates stayed anchored near the OMO target with overnight repo below the 7-day rate; the RMB was stable against the USD but depreciated versus the CFETS basket, and a rising implied counter-cyclical factor signals a preference for slower appreciation. Policy steps include the July 30 Politburo meeting, a 40-year mortgage term cap from August 28, RMB22 billion of ultra-long special bonds for truck scrappage, and elderly-care vouchers worth RMB6.5 billion for roughly 2 million seniors.