Goldman Sachs GOAL Kickstart: 2025 Performance Review - Exceptional Equity Performance but Less US Exceptionalism
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Goldman Sachs reviews the exceptional cross-asset performance of 2025, a year characterized by strong risk appetite. Equities delivered robust returns, with the US 60/40 portfolio matching its 2024 performance despite diminished US exceptionalism. Precious metals rallied significantly, led by silver and gold, while copper rebounded strongly. European bank stocks surged 75%, and emerging market and Asian assets performed exceptionally well amid a weaker US dollar.
The narrative shifted during the year. Around the April 2 "Liberation Day," risk appetite dropped sharply before rebounding powerfully, creating a "buy-the-dip" moment for US assets. However, the US dollar, Bitcoin, and the energy index have yet to fully recover those losses. Bitcoin fell 10% in 2025 following a 123% surge in 2024.
The Magnificent 7 outperformed the broader market, though by a much smaller margin than in 2024, with increasing divergence among individual constituents.
Looking ahead to 2026, Goldman Sachs maintains a moderate risk appetite, remaining overweight equities for both 3-month and 12-month horizons, while staying underweight bonds, commodities, cash, and credit. The global macroeconomic backdrop remains supportive, featuring anticipated global growth of 2.8% (versus 2.5% consensus), declining inflation, and policy easing. However, elevated valuations suggest that risk-adjusted equity returns may moderate, with market leadership broadening significantly beyond US large caps.