Goldman Sachs China Consumer Staples Cost Index Tracker: December 2025
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Goldman Sachs released its December 2025 China Consumer Staples Cost Index tracker, analyzing price trends across more than 40 raw materials and assessing cost dynamics within six major sub-sectors, including beer, dairy, condiments, and pet food. The report concludes that most consumer staples companies should continue to experience cost tailwinds, although the magnitude of these benefits will likely be smaller than in 2024.
Spot prices for key raw materials, including raw milk, molasses, soybean meal, vegetables, oils, pork, and packaging materials like PET and pulp, declined between 1% and 39% compared to their 2024 averages. Notably, molasses prices dropped 35% year-over-year, while raw milk prices sequentially stabilized during the month.
Conversely, certain inputs faced inflationary pressures. Pepper prices surged 45% year-over-year, and protein prices showed mixed results, with fish and chicken rising while pork and duck declined. Packaging material cost benefits gradually faded in December, with aluminum and pulp prices rising on a monthly basis.
Macro indicators revealed a slight narrowing in producer price deflation, with the December PPI at -1.9% compared to -2.2% in November. The Consumer Price Index registered 0.8% year-over-year growth. Overall, sector cost indices showed sequential declines for frozen bakery, soy sauce, and beverages, while compound condiments and pet food experienced modest cost inflation.