J.P. Morgan Mindray Medical (300760) 1Q26: Turning Point Is Close — Ex-China Business Accelerating, Domestic IVD Gaining Share. Maintain OW
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J.P. Morgan maintains an Overweight rating on Mindray Medical, asserting that the company is approaching a crucial inflection point ahead of its 1Q26 results. The investment thesis is anchored by accelerating business momentum outside of China and sustained market share gains within the domestic In-Vitro Diagnostics (IVD) sector.
The firm projects that Mindray will deliver 12% year-over-year revenue growth for the first quarter of 2026. This performance is primarily driven by ex-China operations, which are expected to surge by over 20%, highlighting successful penetration into overseas markets and ongoing breakthroughs with premium international hospital clients. Meanwhile, total domestic revenue is forecast to grow approximately 8%, with domestic IVD revenue specifically accelerating to 15% growth. This domestic IVD resilience is fueled by accelerated hospital onboarding and steady reagent consumption following centralized procurement initiatives.
Overall gross margins should remain highly stable at roughly 65%, supported by continuous product mix optimization and rigorous cost controls. Net profit is projected to increase 14% year-over-year, translating to a robust net margin of approximately 32%. While domestic equipment tenders still face disruptions from ongoing anti-corruption measures, the rigid demand for IVD reagents and rapid international expansion provide sufficient structural support. Management maintains its full-year revenue growth guidance of 15%, identifying 1Q26 as the definitive trough. Growth rates are subsequently expected to accelerate sequentially throughout the remainder of the year.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
