UBS Expert Call Takeaways: China Blood Products Industry Update
Summaries are public. PDF access requires an active membership; all members have the same access. Sign in
A UBS expert call on January 22, 2026, highlighted significant shifts in China's blood products sector. Following heavy Q4 2025 shipments, channel inventories have risen, with some smaller distributors holding over six months of albumin stock, while IVIG inventory sits at roughly two months. Looking into 2026, Q1 shipments are expected to remain under pressure year-on-year, with potential sequential improvement in Q2, though full-year industry headwinds persist.
The full implementation of DRG/DIP policies has severely impacted hospital sales. In-hospital albumin volumes dropped 30-40%, while out-of-hospital volumes fell 10-20% as hospitals controlled prescription outflows. In-hospital albumin prices declined approximately 10%, with steeper drops outside hospitals. IVIG in-hospital volume fell about 20%, though its long-term growth potential remains substantial; per capita usage is only a quarter of overseas markets.
On the supply side, plasma collection has sustained a 5-10% annualized growth rate, although approvals for new plasma stations remain strictly controlled. Total albumin lot releases in 2024/2025 reached approximately 98 million domestic and 110 million imported bottles, with imports exceeding 60% market share. However, if domestic self-sufficiency is achieved, imports could face restrictions. Industry consolidation is inevitable. Leading companies leverage superior technology to extract more products per plasma unit at lower costs, driving M&A. The number of industry players could shrink from over 20 to fewer than 10. Albumin is the most likely candidate for Volume-Based Procurement (VBP), potentially on a regional or tiered basis, followed by IVIG.