JPMorgan: Xiaomi (1810) — 2026 Investor Day Takeaways
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JPMorgan maintains a Neutral rating on Xiaomi with a 12-month target price of HKD 35.00, based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation. The firm notes that while Xiaomi is making incremental breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and robotics, commercialization remains a distant prospect. The smartphone segment faces severe headwinds from rising memory and logistics costs, with management projecting at least a 10% decline in 2026 global shipment volumes. AIoT continues to show high-growth potential overseas, though domestic demand is decelerating due to fading consumer subsidies.
Xiaomi reaffirmed a substantial total research and development commitment of RMB 200 billion for 2026-2030, including at least RMB 60 billion dedicated to AI over the next three years. The newly released MiMo V2.5 models rank first among global open-source models. Domestically produced robots are already operating in Xiaomi's own factories, achieving 90% accuracy on routine tasks, though management estimates three to five years are needed for full technological maturity.
Electric vehicle operations maintain healthy demand. The refreshed SU7 model secured over 60,000 locked orders by late April, supporting the full-year delivery target of 550,000 units. Overseas expansion into the EU is slated for the second half of 2027, focusing exclusively on the premium market.
JPMorgan believes that recent earnings per share downgrades and margin pressures across smartphones and EVs are already partially priced in, establishing a stock price floor near HKD 26-27. However, a lack of robust core business growth and the time required for new ventures to contribute materially justify the Neutral stance.