Nomura India Steel: Steel Weekly — Week Ended October 9, 2026
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Nomura's India steel weekly (week ended October 9, 2026) reports firm global prices. Indian domestic HRC rose INR700/t to INR64,700/t, near four-year highs, while rebar climbed INR900/t to INR63,800/t, narrowing the flat-to-long product spread to roughly INR900/t. India HRC spot margins reached about INR39,110/t in October 2026, up roughly INR3,000/t sequentially from Q2 FY2026. Chinese export HRC held at $510/t with export margins improving to $207/t, and European HRC was stable at EUR750/t; imported coking coal eased to $271/t. India released a draft National Steel Policy targeting 604MT of crude steel capacity by 2047, up from about 220MT today, prioritizing decarbonization—cutting carbon intensity from 2.54 to 1.54 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of crude steel—and raw-material security. Nomura stays positive on Indian steel, expecting producers to absorb cost inflation via price increases in H1 FY2026 and to generate above-mid-cycle per-tonne EBITDA during FY2027-FY2029, with Tata Steel posting the highest standalone unit EBITDA in coverage. Tata Steel (TATA IN), JSW Steel (JSTL IN), and Jindal Steel (JINDALST IN) are all rated Buy.
Key exhibits
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