Goldman Sachs China Pet Food Monthly, August 2026: Off-Season Easing in August; Divergence Persists — China Pet Foods Strong, Gambol Flat
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Goldman Sachs' China pet food monthly for August 2026 notes a modest easing in the off-season but persistent divergence: China Pet Foods performed strongly while Gambol Pet Group stayed lackluster. China Pet Foods' August GMV rose 33% yoy (Wanpy/Zeal +28%/+26%; Toptrees +42%; 3QTD +33%), whereas Gambol grew only 3% (Myfoodie/Fregate +11%/-47%; Balance Nutrition +212%; 3QTD +6%). Sector online GMV growth slowed to +11% yoy in August from July's 24%, though 3QTD +17% still exceeded 2Q26's +14%, with Douyin (+23%; 3QTD +31%) continuing to gain share; most brands lifted Tmall/Taobao share month-over-month and Douyin share versus 2Q26, while August operations leaned further into KOLs. Overseas demand weakened: July US dog/cat food imports fell 4% yoy in total and 35% from China (June: +7%/+33%). Costs and FX are headwinds - August raw-material costs rose month-over-month (cost index +0-1ppt; PET 28% above the 2025 average) and RMB appreciation may cause FX losses for pet OEMs. Ratings are unchanged: Petpal Sell (12-month target RMB11.0; last price RMB14.53); China Pet Foods Neutral (RMB26; RMB28.79); Gambol Neutral (RMB41.0; RMB39.08).
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