Goldman Sachs: Xiaomi (1810.HK): Takeaways from the 2026 Asia Leaders Conference

Following the August 24 launch of its three XRING chips, Goldman Sachs sees Xiaomi (1810.HK) approaching a new catalyst cluster: the SkyNomad's official launch within about a week, confirmed order volumes in early October, the Xiaomi 18 flagship launch in late September, and the MiMo-V3 model and other AI application releases. The firm maintains Buy with an unchanged 12-month SOTP target of HK$39, implying 41.5% upside from HK$27.56; the valuation applies 16x 12-month forward EV/NOPAT to Xiaomi core, a US$35bn DCF for the EV business (12% WACC, 3% terminal growth) and a 10% holding discount. Rising store traffic has lifted SkyNomad N70 interest and driven SU7/YU7 confirmed orders; management is confident in conversion given stronger supply chains and shorter wait times, and views EV gross margins as healthy versus industry averages. Smartphone gross margin is guided at 9% this year on milder memory cost inflation in 2H26 and 2027. The AI strategy benchmarks DeepSeek's efficiency in reaching SOTA performance; the AI business is roughly gross-margin breakeven with a small net loss. XRING's O3 SoC debuts in foldables and flagship tablets, the O100 is an AI accelerator using chip-on-chip 3D stacking, and the 3nm D100 ADAS chip runs LLMs of up to 200bn parameters locally. Goldman forecasts 2026E revenue of Rmb433,007mn and EPS of Rmb0.90.