Goldman Sachs China Property Weekly Wrap: Week 28 — Sequential Volume Weakening with Leading Indicators Trended Lower
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Key Views
The State Council's 15th Five-Year Consumption Plan emphasizes healthy property-market development but omits previously flagged measures such as special-bond funding for unsold-home purchases and property-tax relief. Secondary-market leading indicators softened: showings and subscriptions (leading registered sales by 1–2 weeks) fell 8% and 6% respectively, and price-uptick expectations among agents and sellers declined. Inventory edged down 0.4% sequentially to 27.0 months of supply (vs. June average of 27.5 months). Covered stronger SOE developers dropped 2% on average, though China Overseas Land & Investment (0688.HK, Buy) gained 4%.
Outlook
The GSPC tracker implies June completions fell ~20% YoY (full-year: –1%). June starts are expected to decline by twenty-plus percentage points YoY. Roughly 75-city data suggests July top-100 developer contracted sales may rise 5% YoY versus June's –13%. BEKE 2Q26 total GTV is projected up 2% YoY.
Recommended Securities
- China Overseas Land & Investment (0688.HK) — Buy
- CR Land (1109.HK) — Buy
- Greentown China (3900.HK) — Buy
- China Jinmao (0817.HK) — Buy
- Poly Developments (600048.SS) — Neutral
- China Merchants Shekou (001979.SZ) — Neutral
- Vanke A (000002.SZ) — Sell
Covered offshore and onshore names trade at average 2026E NAV discounts of 39% and 36% respectively, equivalent to ~0.4x 2026E P/B.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
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Exhibit 3
Exhibit 4
Exhibit 5
Exhibit 6
Exhibit 7
