China Property: 2026 Sales Outlook; Bottom-up Analysis on 2025 Land Acquisitions
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Citi published a report on January 5, 2026, evaluating land replenishment quality and quantity to support 2026 sales forecasts. Based on a bottom-up analysis of 354 newly acquired projects across 13 major listed developers in 2025, attributable land acquisition value grew 15% year-over-year to RMB 478 billion, contrasting a 7% decline across 300 cities. Land acquisitions reached 33% of attributable sales, marking the highest ratio since 2021. Investment was heavily concentrated in the first half, representing 58% of the annual total, before decelerating due to widening secondary home price declines in core cities.
Only 13 listed developers acquired land, with the top five—COLI, Poly, CR Land, CMSK, and Greentown—accounting for 71% of sector acquisitions. State-owned enterprises represented 75% of land acquisitions. Citi expects 2026 contracted sales for listed developers to decline by 16% (versus a 25% drop in 2025), with SOEs down 6% and non-SOEs down 17%. Top picks for Q1 2026 include China Jinmao (projected sales growth of 6% to RMB 120 billion), C&D International, and CR Land.