J.P. Morgan | Macau Gaming Mid-Month GGR Update (August 2026: Weeks 1 and 2)
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Key Views
- September GGR growth may improve to low-to-mid single digits on the low base created by last year's super typhoon.
- Q3 EBITDA momentum should stabilize after a 2-3% decline in Q2.
- The improvement is base-, event- and timing-driven rather than a fundamental inflection, and momentum could fade in Q4 as the base rises.
- J.P. Morgan's EBITDA estimates sit 5-7% below FY26E-27E consensus, which still faces downward revision pressure.
Outlook
Sector valuations have compressed to 8x EV/EBITDA and 5-7% dividend yields, but lack a clear catalyst for a genuine re-rating. The bank maintains a selective stance, with Galaxy Entertainment remaining its top pick. It forecasts industry GGR of MOP 253.2 billion in 2026 and MOP 265.1 billion in 2027.