Goldman Sachs China: Trade Growth Accelerated in April
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Goldman Sachs reports that China's trade growth accelerated in April, with both exports and imports exceeding market expectations. Export growth reached 8.1% year-over-year, surpassing the forecast of 6.5% and accelerating from March's 5.9% reading. Meanwhile, imports grew 5.5% year-over-year, beating the consensus estimate of 4.0% and recovering from the prior month's 4.2% increase. Consequently, the trade surplus expanded to $72.3 billion, up from $68.2 billion in March.
The export momentum was primarily driven by a 12.3% surge in electronics and a 9.7% increase in machinery. On the import side, commodity restocking contributed significantly, highlighted by a 6.2% rise in crude oil imports and a 4.5% increase in iron ore. Geographically, exports to ASEAN grew 11.2%, outpacing the European Union at 6.8% and the United States at 3.5%.
Goldman Sachs attributes this robust performance to resilient external demand, particularly the ongoing electronics cycle, alongside a sustained recovery in domestic production. Seasonally adjusted non-annualized exports also grew 3.4% month-over-month. However, the report cautions that a broader slowdown in global manufacturing PMI poses a potential headwind, introducing uncertainty regarding future export growth despite the current momentum and strong trade surplus.
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