JPMorgan: ASML — Multi-Year Upcycle Confirmed, Too Early to Call the Peak
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JPMorgan reaffirms its Overweight rating on ASML, raising the December 2027 target price from EUR 1,300 to EUR 1,515 and the ADR target from $1,518 to $1,813. This upgrade follows ASML's massive Q4 2025 order intake of EUR 13.2 billion, representing a 43.7% sequential increase and an 85.6% year-over-year surge, which firmly confirms a multi-year upcycle. Management noted that the vast majority of these orders are scheduled for 2027 delivery.
While the 2026 revenue guidance midpoint of EUR 36.5 billion implies a modest 11.7% growth, the robust order book drives upward revisions for 2027 and 2028. The 2026 product mix is temporarily less favorable, featuring more dry DUV tools, which pressures average selling prices. However, a transition to 2nm-related processes in 2027, requiring next-generation EUV systems, will significantly improve the mix. JPMorgan increased its 2026, 2027, and 2028 revenue estimates by 9%, 5%, and 3%, respectively, and raised EPS estimates by 14%, 9%, and 4%.
Furthermore, JPMorgan expanded its valuation multiple from 29x to 32.5x 2028 EPS, reflecting anticipated multiple expansion driven by the adoption of High-NA EUV. Currently undergoing qualification at logic and DRAM customers, High-NA EUV is expected to generate new orders in the second half of 2026. ASML remains on JPMorgan's Analyst Focus List.