UBS: BYD Company Limited – Takeaways from HK Analyst Meeting
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UBS maintains its Buy rating on BYD with a 12-month target price of HK$128.00, following a Hong Kong analyst meeting where management highlighted strengthening momentum. Following the launch of the second-generation Blade Battery, domestic demand has significantly improved, while overseas demand is surging due to rising oil prices. Battery production capacity remains constrained this year due to ongoing production line upgrades, with full conversion targeted for the end of 2026.
UBS sees clear potential for overseas sales to exceed expectations. The management targets over 1.5 million units in 2026, compared to approximately 1 million units in 2025. Furthermore, Chairman Wang Chuanfu is increasingly emphasizing the Energy Storage System (ESS) business, with deliveries expected to exceed 60 GWh in 2025. The company's integrated solar-storage-charging systems can effectively reduce electricity costs to RMB 0.1-0.2 per kWh.
The company plans to deploy 20,000 flash charging stations in China by the end of 2026 and will introduce this fast-charging solution to overseas markets starting in 2027. Localization efforts in Europe, Latin America, Thailand, and Indonesia are progressing smoothly, with the Hungarian factory slated to commence production in March or April 2026. UBS forecasts EPS of RMB 4.41, RMB 6.09, and RMB 7.46 for 2026 through 2028. A new Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) upgrade is scheduled to be announced in May.