Goldman Sachs – European Autos: China OEM Competition Monitor (July 2026): Chinese Market Share Growth Remains Strong; PHEV Export Surge Likely Front-Running Pending Tariffs
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Key Views
The UK and Spain drive growth; Spain is expected to account for 46% and 58% of Chinese automakers' projected total European production capacity in 2026/27. June PHEV exports to the EU surged 263% YoY, likely front-running pending EU anti-subsidy tariffs, with per-vehicle export values trending toward USD 20,000 as the mix shifts toward more affordable PHEVs. Including Chinese-owned European brands such as MG and Volvo, the combined share reached 12.21%.
Outlook
Premium-brand share weakness may reverse in 2027 as German BEV launches and capacity ramp up; pending EU anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese PHEVs could affect future export volumes and Chinese brands' overseas retail.
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