Nomura: TSMC Technology Symposium Takeaways
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Nomura reiterated a Buy rating on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (2330.TW) with a target price of NT$2,820 following TSMC's North America Technology Symposium on April 22, 2026. The symposium reinforced TSMC's robust technology roadmap and expansion plans driven by surging AI and high-performance computing demand.
The N2 process node demonstrates a superior yield learning curve, reaching equivalent defect density levels two quarters ahead of N3. Second-year new tape-outs for N2 are tracking at four times the volume of N5. TSMC plans a five-stage capacity ramp in Taiwan during 2026, projecting first-year wafer output to exceed N3 by 45% and a 70% capacity CAGR from 2026 to 2028. Looking ahead, A14 is scheduled for 2028 production, followed by A13 and A12 variants in 2029.
In advanced packaging, the CoWoS roadmap extends to 14 times reticle size in 2028 and beyond 14 times in 2029. SoIC capacity is expanding rapidly with a CAGR exceeding 90% through 2027. Nomura highlights that strong AI accelerator demand, improving yields, and massive advanced packaging scaling solidify TSMC's positioning. Consequently, Nomura estimates TSMC's 2027 capital expenditure will reach approximately $70 billion to support ongoing capacity builds.
Nomura values TSMC at 25 times the average 2026 to 2027 EPS estimate. Additional favored names leveraged to SoIC capacity growth include Besi, while United Microelectronics remains a Buy.