Songfa (603268.SH): Hengli Heavy Industry Powers a Fresh Start — Rising Private High-End Shipbuilder Enters a New Growth Cycle (Guosheng Securities)
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Key Views
The upcycle persists: first-half 2026 global new shipbuilding orders hit a record for the period, rising 125.7% year over year in deadweight tonnage, with crude tanker and product tanker orders up 515.6% and 438.5%, respectively. Industry capacity has cleared out and consolidated toward leading Chinese yards, which top all three major newbuilding indicators, while newbuild prices remain at cyclical highs. Drawing on Changxing Island, Dalian's location and infrastructure, Hengli Heavy Industry holds 86 VLCC orders—first globally—and produces marine engines in-house to secure deliveries. It has already met its 2026 performance commitment ahead of schedule, and a private placement will systematically expand capacity.
Outlook
Guosheng Securities forecasts 2026–2028 net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 7.722/12.963/17.852 billion.
Recommended Securities
Songfa (603268.SH): initiate at Buy; implied 2026–2028 PE of 24.2x/14.4x/10.4x, below comparable peers' 2027–2028 averages.