Goldman Sachs China Economic Activity and Policy Tracker: September 4, 2026
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Goldman Sachs moved its China activity and policy tracker to a weekly schedule to monitor the supply shock from higher energy prices, updating high-frequency indicators across consumption and travel, production and investment, other macro activity, and markets and policy. Property sales diverged but stayed above year-ago levels: 30-city new-home daily sales ticked up (+4.7% y/y on September 3) while 16-city secondhand sales slipped slightly (+6.3% y/y). Domestic passenger flights fell with higher cancellation rates, though congestion in major cities rose 4.0% y/y. Gasoline and diesel prices were raised by RMB375 and RMB360 per ton on August 29; sulfuric acid eased and other exposed chemicals were broadly stable. Morning Consult consumer confidence and August's weighted PMI employment sub-index both dipped. Quasi-fiscal support softened as policy-bank bond issuance and PSL injections weakened in August versus July, and the GS oil-demand nowcast edged down to 16.4mb/d. Repo rates sit near the OMO target, and a rising implicit countercyclical factor in the USDCNY fixing signals policymakers' preference for slower RMB appreciation. After the July 30 Politburo meeting strengthened easing language, consumption, housing, logistics and communications-network policies have been rolled out in quick succession.
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