J.P. Morgan Property Data Monitor: Mainland China Leading Indicators Marginally Improved; HK Sierra Sea Sell-Through
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J.P. Morgan's latest property data monitor reveals marginally improved leading indicators for mainland China alongside robust sales momentum in Hong Kong. In mainland China, the Centaline second-hand listing price index for tier-one cities ticked up to 20.8, and manager confidence rose slightly to 49, likely aided by recent tax reductions. However, new home sales registrations across 60 cities fell 46% year-over-year, while secondary market transactions in 12 cities declined 3%, signaling a market still bottoming. In Hong Kong, Sun Hung Kai Properties achieved a 100% sell-through rate for 229 units at the Sierra Sea project at HK$12,100 per square foot. Secondary market volume surged 56% week-over-week to a multi-month high. The firm expects Hong Kong home prices to climb 5-7% in 2026. On the credit front, Vanke revised its bond extension proposal, offering to repay 40% of principal upfront and extending the remainder by one year, backed by project receivables. J.P. Morgan's preferred mainland property stocks include China Resources Land, CR MixC Lifestyle, and China Jinmao, favoring Longfor Group as a high-beta policy play. In Hong Kong, top picks encompass Swire Properties, Henderson Land, and CK Asset Holdings.