Goldman Sachs Global Autos: Field Research Across China; Refreshing the EV Sentiment Map
Summaries are public. PDF access requires an active membership; all members have the same access. Sign in
Goldman Sachs' global autos team visited Chinese OEM and component supplier sites in early September 2026 around its Asia leadership meeting, concluding that vehicle intelligence and electrification are evolving rapidly, while weak domestic sales have made exports a historically high priority. China's total demand remains below the prior year, with non-NEV models falling most; short new-model lifecycles are dubbed 'seafood,' and retail prices continue to decline amid high inventories and pressured dealer margins. BYD management expects global NEV penetration to exceed 50% within three to five years and above 80% in China, supported by the second-generation Blade Battery and flash-charging infrastructure. July global BEV sales rose 32% yoy, led by China and Europe and dragged by the US; BEV penetration climbed from 15% to 20% within a year, PHEV held at 8%, and HEV rose from 6% to 8%. Field checks also flagged rapid L2+/L2++ ADAS adoption, L3 readiness pending regulation, chips sourced from Horizon, Qualcomm and Nvidia, warmer European OEM ties alongside IAA policy concerns, and interest in humanoid robotics. Based on first-half data, Goldman Sachs nudged its 2026 global sales forecast to -1.1% yoy (from -2.1%), raised Europe and emerging markets, and introduced 2028 at +1.1%, with no significant inventory build expected over the next three years.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
Exhibit 3
Exhibit 4
Exhibit 5
Exhibit 6
Exhibit 7
Exhibit 8
