Goldman Sachs GOAL Kickstart: Summer Data-Only Update
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Key Views
- S&P 500 targets: 7,600 (3m), 8,000 (6m), 8,300 (12m).
- Credit: overweight US investment grade and high yield; underweight European IG and HY.
- FX: USD/CNY to 6.80 (3m) and 6.50 (12m); USD/JPY to 165; EUR/USD to 1.12.
- The US 10-year Treasury yield sits at the 98th percentile of its 10-year range, while the S&P 500 dividend yield is at the 0th percentile.
- Multivariate logistic regression, risk-appetite indicators, and cross-asset correlation matrices track US recession probability, implied equity drawdown and rally probabilities, and global fund flows.
Outlook
Monitoring of cross-asset correlations, implied versus realized volatility, and macro tail-risk metrics frames the forward assessment.
Recommended Securities
- S&P 500: overweight, 12-month target 8,300
- Topix: overweight, 12-month target 4,500
- MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan: overweight, 12-month target 1,080
- Stoxx Europe 600: underweight, 12-month target 660