Goldman Sachs: TSMC 2Q Results — 2026 Guidance Raised on Stronger AI Demand
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Key Views
Q2 gross margin of 67.7% beat company guidance and consensus but missed Goldman's 68.5% estimate, the sole soft spot. Customer demand signals now extend to 2029–2030, with agentic AI and multi-architecture CPU demand (x86, ARM, RISC-V) cited as incremental drivers. TSMC plans an additional US$100bn investment in Arizona.
Goldman raised 2026–2028 EPS estimates to NT$109.21, NT$140.91, and NT$180.83, respectively. The firm projects 2025–2028 USD revenue CAGR of 33.8% and EPS CAGR of 39.7%.
Outlook
Annual CoWoS shipments are forecast to grow from 1,197k units in 2026 to 3,306k in 2028. Key downside risks include weaker end demand, slower AI investment, yield issues, and FX headwinds.
Recommended Securities
- 2330.TW: Buy; 12-month target raised from NT$3,000 to NT$3,100 (22x 2027E P/E), implying 25.5% upside.
- TSM ADR: Buy; 12-month target US$620, implying 47.8% upside.
Key exhibits
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