Nomura Global AI Trend Tracker: Will Moonshot's Kimi K3 Be China's 'DeepSeek 2.0 Moment'?
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Key Views
Chinese models now exceed 45% of global developer token usage, up from under 2% a year ago. While concerns persist that highly efficient Chinese models could reduce compute demand, Nomura maintains that training scaling laws remain effective and inference workloads will accelerate. This sustains the AI cycle, benefiting compute, networking, IDC, and AI cloud infrastructure. General software faces greater disruption risk, but vertical leaders leveraging generative AI should prevail.
Outlook
Chinese models will continue expanding globally via cost-effectiveness, while top US models maintain premiums through complex task capabilities. Hyperscale capital expenditure has upside potential through 2027F.
Recommended Securities
Nomura favors compute and semiconductors: TSMC (2330 TT, Buy), ASE Technology Holding (3711 TT, Buy), MediaTek (2454 TT, Buy); memory: Samsung Electronics (005930 KS, Buy); AI networking: Innolight (300308 CH, Buy); AI cloud: Alibaba (BABA US, Buy), GDS Holdings (GDS US, Buy); vertical software: Kingdee (268 HK, Buy), Kingsoft Office (688111 CH, Buy). Zhipu (2513 HK, Not rated) is noted as an emerging global Chinese model provider.
Key exhibits
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