Chemicals 2Q26 Preview: A Tactical Long and a Couple of Prints to Be Managed
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Key Views
The highest-conviction tactical trade is a long position in Akzo Nobel. Bernstein views market concerns over a guidance cut as overblown and models 2026 EBITDA at €1.48bn—above the company's €1.47bn+ guidance and consensus of roughly €1.42bn. A cut at the 2Q26 stage appears very unlikely; if the company follows its 1Q playbook, resilient pricing could even become a source of 3Q guidance upside.
On Air Liquide, Bernstein is mildly cautious as growth expectations look elevated, particularly for Large Industries. However, fundamentals remain sound and pricing plus cost actions should bridge the gap, with a modeled 2H26 OIR margin improvement of 130 basis points.
For Solvay, the risk-reward skews negative. Modeled 2Q26 EBITDA is in line with consensus, but a miss could raise doubts about hitting the low end of guidance. Even a modest beat (~€185m EBITDA) would still threaten 2026 guidance in a low-demand inflationary environment. Bernstein models Solvay 2026 EBITDA at €774m, assuming a Q4 restart at the Sadara peroxides plant and no further material raw-material inflation.
Outlook
No specific price targets or time windows were provided.
Key exhibits
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