Bernstein: China Smartphone Tracker (May) — Record High ASP and Inventory Levels
Summaries are public. PDF access requires an active membership; all members have the same access. Sign in
China smartphone sell-through rose 5% month-over-month in May 2026 but fell 20% year-over-year to 17.3 million units, bringing year-to-date shipments down 9%. Elevated memory costs pressured all price tiers, with low-end (under RMB 2,000), mid-range (RMB 2,000–5,000), and high-end (over RMB 5,000) shipments declining 38%, 17%, and 5% respectively. The low-end segment's share of total shipments dropped to a historic low.
Average selling price (ASP) surged 24% year-over-year in May, a sharp acceleration from April's mid-teens growth, setting a new record. This increase was driven by a product mix shift during the 618 shopping festival and higher memory costs forcing price hikes. Meanwhile, Android brand inventory reached a record 3.9 months, with sell-in significantly outpacing sell-through for two consecutive months. This high inventory, combined with thin or negative margins, likely explains the reduced promotional intensity during this year's 618 festival.
During the 618 period, Apple cut the iPhone 17 Pro price by RMB 1,000, dropping it below RMB 7,000 for the first time and capturing 6 percentage points of share from Huawei. Huawei benefited from the Pura 80 launch cycle, although early feedback was muted, with higher SMIC N+3 node processor costs limiting its pricing flexibility. Xiaomi’s May shipments fell 29% year-over-year, with market share declining to 14.5%. Bernstein forecasts the overall China smartphone market will decline 15% in 2026. The firm maintains Outperform ratings on MediaTek, Apple, Luxshare, Largan, Xiaomi, Sunny Optical, and Soitec, and Market Perform ratings on Novatek and Qualcomm.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
Exhibit 3
Exhibit 4
Exhibit 5
Exhibit 6
Exhibit 7
Exhibit 8
