Durable Consumer Industries: Property Recovery's Durability Sets the Domestic-Demand Ceiling; Growth-Type Dividend Names Favored
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Sinolink Securities' durable-consumer note tracks trendy toys, new tobacco, home furnishings, paper and packaging, personal care and AI glasses. In home furnishings, first-tier cities rebounded across the board during the National Day holiday as property policies compounded—the '828' completed-home sales system plus '929' mortgage subsidies—though persistence remains to be seen. In new tobacco, the FDA is advancing PMTA review reform targeting 180 days; August China e-cigarette exports rose 3.1% year-on-year. Paper leaders announced price hikes for mid-to-late October as pulp and oil costs climb, strengthening price-hold signals. Xiaomi delivered over 40,000 EVs in September, with the Pengcheng series topping 70,000 locked orders; Creality's 3D-printer crowdfund surpassed $3.7 million. Furniture exports improved at the margin while China-EU trade-friction risks eased; August two-wheeler sales fell 10.2% year-on-year. The report recommends growth-type dividend names: Kuka Home, Bull, DeRucci, Oppein, Man Wah, Suofeiya, Zbom; China Tobacco HK, Smoore, Huabao, Intretech; Pop Mart, M&G, Bloks, Dengkang, Miniso, Baiya; Gambol, China Pet; Xiaomi, Creality, Conant Optical; Nine Dragons, Yuto, Sun Paper; CFMoto, Ninebot, Yadea and Aima. Momentum is divergent, with furnishings, paper and toys bottoming or inflecting upward.
Key exhibits
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