Goldman Sachs Oil Tracker: Steep Russian and Middle East Export Shortfalls Overshadow China's Demand Recovery
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Goldman Sachs estimates global refinery runs are 7.9mb/d below year-ago levels. Russian runs sit 2.3mb/d below seasonal norms, dragging diesel, fuel oil and naphtha exports and turning Russia into a net gasoline importer (imports +81kb/d y/y), while Americas outages are 1.2mb/d below normal and US refiners have deferred up to 0.7mb/d of autumn maintenance—roughly 15% of the region's typical peak-season outages. Inventories are tight: OECD commercial diesel and gasoline stocks are 2% and 5% below last year, US diesel has drawn 0.1mb/d (3%) since mid-July, and China drew 2.2/1.7 million barrels of gasoline/diesel in August. China's clean product exports have recovered to a 0.8mb/d 28-day average, slightly positive y/y, with 141 million barrels of unused quota; full utilization would add 0.4mb/d by year-end, but Goldman doubts this offsets larger Russian and Middle East losses. Demand is soft under high pump prices: Sinopec estimates China's H1 2026 diesel demand fell 11.5% y/y, US gasoline demand is down 0.2mb/d (-2%, retail prices +30% y/y), Europe -0.4mb/d and India -0.2mb/d, with September jet fuel only slightly up y/y and 3% below trend. Goldman expects diesel margins to stay elevated, assumes Middle East disruptions and attacks on Russian refineries persist with outages easing by mid-2027, and reiterates a long Mar27-Dec27 European diesel timespread to hedge geopolitical risk.
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