Technology Tiering as the New Supply-Side Narrative, Awaiting the Turn: Solar PV Industry Mid-Year Strategy for 2026
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Key Views
- Document No. 136 policy transmission cut domestic installs over 60%, lowering the 2026 global outlook to 612 GW.
- Polysilicon overcapacity exceeds 2x; module prices eased slightly in 26Q2, module output is recovering, and polysilicon inventories may keep building.
- TOPCon 3.0 and BC modules can bid in high-power plant segments; most integrated module makers narrowed year-on-year losses in 26Q1, marking a clearer marginal inflection.
Outlook
After near-term pressure, global installs should return to growth; Asia-Pacific (ex-China) and Middle East/Africa drive 2026–2030 additions. Low-efficiency capacity will exit faster; US installs face trade-policy uncertainty.
Recommended Securities
High-power modules: Aiko Solar, JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, Trina Solar. Upgrade equipment: Autowell. Second growth curves: Daqo New Energy, DMEGC, TCL Zhonghuan, Juhe New Materials.