Morgan Stanley: China Property Weekly Database Tracker #22
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Morgan Stanley's twenty-second weekly database tracker monitors Chinese real estate metrics through May 31, 2026, revealing a market in a tentative bottoming phase. Across key cities, primary market new home sales areas declined by 12% week-over-week, though they remained up 5% year-over-year. Existing home sales posted an 8% sequential decline but registered a robust 15% annual increase, indicating relatively stronger activity in the secondary market. In the land market, residential land transactions across 300 cities dropped 20% week-over-week, despite a 10% year-over-year improvement, reflecting cautious developer land acquisition strategies. Inventory levels across major urban centers remained flat sequentially, with the absorption cycle holding steady at a prolonged 18 months, underscoring persistent overhang risks. City-tier divergences remain pronounced: tier-one sales fell 5% sequentially but rose 10% annually, while tier-three and tier-four cities experienced a 5% annual decline. Policy easing effects continue to permeate the sector; the average first-home mortgage rate decreased by 5 basis points to 3.8%. On the financing front, domestic bond issuance by property developers dropped 30% sequentially but grew 8% year-over-year, signaling marginal improvement in funding conditions. The broader recovery foundation remains fragile, necessitating continued policy support.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
