Goldman Sachs China Solar: 2026 SNEC Takeaways — DESS Emerges as Bright Spot
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Goldman Sachs notes that while overall sentiment in the solar industry remains subdued following the 2026 SNEC exhibition, Distributed Energy Storage Systems (DESS) have emerged as a structural growth highlight. The firm highlights a clear divergence between persistent pressure on photovoltaic module prices and surging demand for decentralized storage.
Goldman Sachs projects global solar installations to grow by 10% in 2026, a significant deceleration from the 20% growth rate seen in 2025. Meanwhile, module prices are expected to decline 15% year-over-year due to severe overcapacity. Consequently, earnings for covered solar manufacturers are projected to fall by 5–10%.
In contrast, DESS demand is experiencing explosive growth. Global DESS installations are forecast to double, reaching 50 GWh. Supported by ongoing cost reductions and policy incentives in select provinces, DESS integrators are seeing gross margins improve to roughly 20% due to scale effects.
Technological iteration continues to accelerate, with N-type cell efficiency gains failing to offset margin compression across the manufacturing chain. Regional demand is mixed, with European markets remaining stable while US demand softens due to tariff pressures.
Goldman Sachs advises investors to pivot toward storage-related opportunities rather than traditional solar manufacturers. DESS demand is expected to remain robust through 2027, with module prices potentially bottoming in the second half of 2026. Key risks include policy shifts and trade frictions.