Morgan Stanley: Murata Manufacturing (6981.T) Japan Summit 2026 - Expects 85-90% YoY Sales Growth for AI Server MLCCs
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Morgan Stanley reports that Murata Manufacturing plans to achieve 85% to 90% year-over-year sales growth in AI and data center multilayer ceramic capacitors for fiscal year F3/27. This substantial expansion is driven by increasing shipment volumes and improved product mix, specifically through miniaturization and higher capacitance specifications that enhance average selling prices. While pricing decline trends have moderated, the company has not yet implemented direct price increases for existing products.
To accommodate surging demand, Murata expanded its production capacity by 10% annually through F3/26 and plans an additional 10% increase for F3/27. Looking toward F3/28, management anticipates a further significant demand spike across AI applications. Consequently, Murata intends to deploy an additional 80 billion yen in capital expenditure within Japan over two years starting from F3/27, targeting a 20% to 25% capacity uplift.
Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating on Murata Manufacturing with a target price of 5,100 yen. As of the close on May 21, 2026, the stock traded at 6,727 yen, representing a market capitalization of approximately 12.5 trillion yen. Key downside risks include fluctuations in global economic conditions affecting pricing and demand, alongside weaker-than-anticipated premium smartphone sales. Currency exposure remains notable, with every one-yen fluctuation against the US dollar impacting operating profit by roughly 4.5 billion yen.