Nomura Global Satellites: Accelerated Launch Plans and Broadened Applications
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Nomura highlights that the global satellite industry is experiencing accelerated launch schedules and rapidly broadening applications. The deployment of low Earth orbit constellations is speeding up, with the total number of satellites launched globally in 2026 expected to reach 5,000 units, representing a 30% increase over 2025. LEO satellites are consolidating their position as the industry standard, growing from 60% of total deployments in 2024 to a projected 75% by 2026. Furthermore, application scenarios are diversifying significantly. While communication will remain dominant, its revenue share is dropping to 50%, with earth observation and Internet of Things applications contributing 25% and 15%, respectively. This expansion is fundamentally driven by declining costs, with manufacturing expenses for a single LEO satellite falling 40% since 2020 to just USD 500,000. Favorable government policies globally, including relaxed spectrum allocation, are further catalyzing commercial development. Nomura projects total global satellite service revenue will reach USD 400 billion in 2026 and potentially exceed USD 500 billion by 2028. SpaceX continues to lead with a 40% market share, though Chinese and European competitors are steadily gaining ground. Orbital debris and spectrum interference remain the primary downside risks to growth.