J.P. Morgan — Global Power Generation Equipment: Gas Turbine Trends Tracker
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J.P. Morgan's gas turbine trends tracker records roughly 38GW of global orders in 2Q26, a quarterly record, up 71% year on year and 29% quarter on quarter, putting full-year 2026 on track for about 120GW. The US remained the dominant market with about 18GW (+49% YoY), and H/J-class advanced turbines accounted for 19.8GW (+93% YoY). The big three OEMs, Siemens Energy, GE Vernova and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, captured roughly 77% of quarterly orders at 12.5GW, 11.3GW and 5.3GW respectively. Caterpillar's Solar booked 2.8GW, including about 1.9GW (86 units) for data centers slated for delivery in 2Q-3Q 2027. J.P. Morgan estimates global OEM simple-cycle capacity of about 85GW by 2028, trending above 95GW after 2030 as GE Vernova lifts heavy-duty capacity to about 24GW by 2028 (total ~26GW, raised to ~30GW in its late-July update) and Siemens Energy expands from about 17GW in FY24 to ~22GW in FY25-27 and above 30GW by FY28-30. Channel checks show combined-cycle project costs approaching $2,800-3,000/kW, with 2030 COD median capex up about 200% versus 2025. Cumulative orders since 1980 total 975,662MW for GE, 544,090MW for Siemens Energy, 259,088MW for Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and 203,222MW for other vendors. J.P. Morgan is Overweight GE Vernova, Argan, Siemens Energy, Baker Hughes and Caterpillar.