J.P. Morgan China Property: NPC Yields No Surprises, Largely as Expected

J.P. Morgan notes that the 2026 National People's Congress delivered no surprises for the property sector, aligning with already low investor expectations. The Government Work Report continues to frame real estate primarily within a "risk resolution" context rather than announcing aggressive market stimulus. Notably, the previous "stabilize declines" rhetoric has been removed, acknowledging the market's ongoing adjustment. New measures targeting housing support for newlywed and first-child families hint at potential future mortgage or tax subsidies, though these largely serve social objectives. The report highlights that the "guaranteed delivery of homes" initiative is considered complete, potentially reducing future construction funding needs. The 15th Five-Year Plan reclassifies the sector under "high-quality development," emphasizing better housing standards rather than the old "houses are for living, not speculation" mantra. J.P. Morgan anticipates near-term sector underperformance but suggests the late-April Politburo meeting could serve as the next catalyst. Historically, significant policy shifts occur during Politburo meetings rather than the NPC. The firm maintains Overweight ratings on China Resources Land (1109.HK), CR MixC Lifestyle (1209.HK), and China Jinmao (0817.HK). It also highlights that China Overseas Land & Investment (0688.HK) and Longfor Group (0960.HK) offer greater upside potential during any policy-driven market rebounds.