Goldman Sachs: Yingliu (603308.SS) - China Forum 2026 Key Takeaways: Cycle May Last Till 2032-33
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Goldman Sachs hosted Yingliu, Wedge, and Jereh at its China Forum 2026 in Shenzhen, gathering critical cross-validation for the ongoing gas turbine supercycle. Yingliu management confirmed accelerating capacity expansion, with one advanced ALD equipment unit arriving in 2H26 and commencing production by 1H27. The company has signed over CNY 500 million in orders year-to-date, representing roughly 17% of its CNY 3 billion target for 2026, and is actively negotiating with Doosan.
Yingliu's pricing still carries an approximate 30% discount to international peers, though management indicated this gap could narrow for new SKUs if supply tightens. Cross-checks with Jereh suggested the heavy-duty gas turbine cycle has visibility extending into 2032-2033, while Wedge confirmed that turbines installed in the early 2000s are entering a replacement phase, with maintenance, repair, and overhaul representing 60-70% of market demand over the next two years.
As a global high-end casting supplier holding less than 1% market share, Yingliu is positioned to capture significant demand spillover as Western OEMs like Siemens Energy, GE Vernova, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries face severe capacity bottlenecks.
Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on Yingliu with a 12-month target price of CNY 85, implying 25.6% upside. The firm models a 27% revenue CAGR and 43% earnings CAGR from 2025 through 2030, driven by AI data center power needs and aftermarket replacement demand.