Software: CoreWeave vs. Nebius — Scaled Leadership and Visibility vs. Diversity and Optionality
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Morgan Stanley provides a detailed comparative analysis of two prominent public Neocloud companies, CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius (NBIS), both uniquely positioned to capitalize on surging AI compute demand. CoreWeave is identified as the definitive leader in scale, velocity, and forward visibility. This visibility is supported by robust disclosure, substantial order backlogs, access to over 8 gigawatts of power, and a mature drawdown term loan financing structure. The firm notes that over 98% of CoreWeave’s business relies on multi-year take-or-pay contracts, ensuring predictable revenue streams.
Conversely, Nebius offers investors significant optionality. This value stems from higher exposure to the spot market, greater potential for diversification across customer bases, funding mechanisms, and data center strategies. Excluding Microsoft and Meta, Nebius holds approximately USD 550 million in annual recurring revenue tied to on-demand or short-term contracts, making it highly sensitive to potential GPU pricing strength. By the end of 2025, CoreWeave commands 850 megawatts of active power, roughly five times Nebius’s 170 megawatts. However, their financial profiles diverge sharply. CoreWeave relies heavily on debt financing, projected to reach USD 46 billion in total debt by 2026, while generating USD 3.1 billion in EBITDA. Meanwhile, Nebius utilizes a more flexible mix of cash, equity, and convertible debt, maintaining a comparatively adaptable balance sheet despite projected negative EBITDA in 2025. Morgan Stanley emphasizes the market is not a zero-sum environment, with both firms well-positioned to capture distinct growth trajectories.