Nomura Asia Economic Monthly: Our Out-of-Consensus Calls
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Nomura's Asia Economic Monthly reiterates several out-of-consensus macroeconomic calls across the region. For China, Nomura forecasts 2026 GDP growth at 4.2%, below market consensus of 4.8%, reflecting continued property sector weakness and soft consumption. Conversely, India's growth projection of 6.5% exceeds the consensus 6.2%, supported by infrastructure investment and manufacturing expansion.
The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its policy rate at 0.25% throughout 2026, as inflation remains below the 2% target and recovery stays fragile. South Korea's export growth is projected to decelerate from 8% in 2025 to 3% in 2026, reflecting cyclical semiconductor demand normalization. Within ASEAN, Vietnam and Indonesia are expected to outperform with growth of 6.8% and 5.2% respectively, while Thailand lags at 3.5%.
Asian inflation should remain moderate at 2.3% for 2026, down from 2.8%. Monetary policy divergence continues: the PBOC may cut rates by 10 basis points to 3.0%, while the RBI holds at 6.5%. Fiscal deficits are expected to widen in China to 3.5%. Key downside risks include US tariff uncertainty, China's property debt issues, and geopolitical tensions affecting capital flows across the region.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
