J.P. Morgan: Akeso (9926.HK) — Why HARMONi-6 OS HR Could Fall Below 0.7 in a Best Case
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J.P. Morgan analyzes the anticipated overall survival hazard ratio for Akeso's HARMONi-6 trial, evaluating ivonescimab combined with chemotherapy against tislelizumab plus chemotherapy in first-line squamous non-small cell lung cancer. Following previously reported positive progression-free survival data with a hazard ratio of 0.6, the market awaits interim OS results. Based on historical twelve- and twenty-four-month OS rates from the AK112-201 and RATIONALE-307 trials, analysts estimate a theoretical OS hazard ratio of 0.63–0.67. However, accounting for baseline differences and the observation that ivonescimab OS hazard ratios in other Phase III trials typically exceed 0.7, J.P. Morgan conservatively sets a base-case OS hazard ratio at 0.7–0.75, with a best-case scenario below 0.7. The trial requires approximately 317 events for final analysis and 222–238 for interim assessment. With an estimated 220 to 230-plus events accumulated by mid-April, interim analysis could be triggered between March and May. Given the late-breaking abstract deadline for ASCO 2026 passed on March 9, data presentation is more probable at WCLC 2026 or ESMO 2026. For the global HARMONi-3 trial's sqNSCLC cohort, analysts project a PFS hazard ratio of 0.65–0.70 and an OS hazard ratio of 0.75–0.85. Akeso (9926.HK) is rated Overweight with a December 2026 target price of HK$162.00.