Nomura USD/CNY Fix Model Projection: 6.8048
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Nomura has published its latest USD/CNY central parity rate fixing model projection, forecasting a value of 6.8048. This represents a decrease of 454 basis points from the previous model projection of 6.8502, and sits 31 basis points above the prior official spot closing rate.
When incorporating the counter-cyclical factor, the adjusted model projection comes in at 6.8257, which is 245 basis points lower than the previous official fixing. The report details the weighted contributions of the top four currency pairs to overnight projected changes, specifically analyzing movements in the Korean won, Japanese yen, Russian ruble, and euro. Historical model error analysis, conducted without the counter-cyclical adjustment, reveals periods of significant deviation between January 2025 and April 2026, with errors exceeding 1,200 basis points at times.
Additionally, the daily fluctuation range of the USD/CNY fixing spanned between -150 and +150 basis points between November 2025 and April 2026. Nomura also outlines a calendar of key upcoming geopolitical and macroeconomic events that could influence the renminbi's trajectory. These include a Trump-Xi meeting in mid-May, the Politburo meeting in late July, the National Day Golden Week in October, the APEC summit in November, and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December.